Moodys Report On Indian Oil Corp Ltd
On July 31 Moody’s Investors Service lowered the issuer rating of Indian Oil Corp Ltd (IOC) from Baa3 to Baa2. This translates to a stable rating pronouncement for IOC.
This action on the part of the agency comes in response to a significant fall in IOC’s profit margin as a result of ongoing regulatory controls in India. This has meant that the company cannot freely pass on the spiraling cost of oil to consumers. The steepening price of oil, despite alleviating measures undertaken by the Indian authorities, has had a markedly deleterious impact on the profit lines of companies such as IOC.
Moreover, the future years are likely to witness a further deterioration of the company credit profile, not least due to its considerable capex plan in the medium term.
“The sharp increase in global crude prices is leading to mounting under-recoveries for IOC and is expected to substantially increase the company’s need for funding to meet both working capital and capital expenditure requirements,” according to Ivan Palacios, who is the Assistant Vice President and main analyst for Moody. “Declining profitability and increasing borrowings to accommodate the capex plan will lead to deterioration in credit metrics, which will no longer be consistent with the previous rating,” Palacios goes on to add.
Despite steps initiated by the Indian government to address the losses being suffered by refineries owned by the state- like: increasing the monitored domestic fuel rates, slashing import duties on crude oil and reducing excise duties levied on gasoline and diesel, the domestic prices of fuel remain unforgivably below that dictated by the market. Additionally, returns from oil bonds can only partially shore up depleting bottom lines. Moody’s takes care to mention, also, that IOC suffers from an excessive preponderance of short-term debt, which is bizarre for a company looking for investment, more so in the current scenario. Fortunately, this has been somewhat counterbalanced by loyalty of the country’s banking system towards IOC. Further, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has pitched in to bail out these types of companies by snapping up oil bonds through its open market operations.
The rating accorded to IOC by Moody’s takes into consideration its underlying rating (that is, BCA) and also the latter’s anticipation of timely governmental support that the oil company is likely to be extended in case of impending financial collapse. But, in the final analysis, it is the fall of IOC’s BCA to 11 (comparably similar a Ba1 for Moody’s) which has precipitated the company’s final credit rating to slide to Baa3. According to Moody’s, IOC is likely to continue to receive governmental support, although it considers the degree of default dependence between the government and IOC (one of the factors in Moody’s JDA Methodology) to be “High” instead of “Medium”. The downgrading of IOC highlights the effect of growing subsidization of oil on governmental fiscal deficit, as also the accentuated strategic, political and social status of IOC in the eyes of the government in a scenario of uncertain oil price.
Moody’s consideration of IOC as a stable investment destination is an affirmation that the rating is not likely to weaken further in the near future, but a revision of such a rating may only be forthcoming in response to a noticeable shift in the rating accorded to the oil company by the Indian government. Taking into account the prevailing atmosphere of uncertainty in India, and climbing prices of crude, there appears to be a very paltry likelihood of the rating going up. However, if sustained subsidization of oil continues resulting in reduced financial hardships for IOC, so that the Cash Flow/Debt ratio is more than 20%-25% and the EBIT/Interest ratio is above 4x-6x on a persistent basis, there can be expected to be some upward movement of the rating.
Opposed to this, if RSF/Debt sinks below 5% and EBIT/Interest slides below 1.5x consistently, there could be a dip in the rating. Furthermore, if IOC’s cash position deteriorates as in case of hardships in getting buyers for its oil bonds, which could be a direct consequence of the RBI discontinuing its mopping up operations and with no alternative governmental action in sight, IOC’s rating could take a hit. Baa3 for IOC is, incidentally, at the same level as the currency bond rating of Indian government. If the latter rating starts going southward, so will be IOC’s rating.
All in all, IOC, which is owned 80.36% by the Indian government, doesn’t paint an all-too-pretty picture for the wary investor. How much investment it’s able to attract will be a matter of the future and its ability to present itself as a viable and profit-making concern that is not dependent on its existence by clinging to the apron strings of an indulgent government.
July 21st, 2010 at 8:59 pm
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